Why Do Forecasts Differ from One Website to the Next?

What often surprises people is that most online forecasts are automated; they’re generated by a machine.

They’re usually less accurate than those produced by a meteorologist because they rely solely on computer model data to generate their forecast. Without the influence of a human that has knowledge about local microclimates and regional weather phenomenon, their inaccuracy can be frustrating.

When there’s some form of human influence with the forecast, short-term forecasts (within a few days) are 80% to 90% accurate! However, a 10-day or longer forecast is only right about 50% of the time.
#weather #cloudy #mothernature #rain #storm #seasons #sun #May2020 #kelowna #okanagan #showers #precipitation #meteorology #weslaweather #wx #statistics #climate #nowyouknow #weatherwednesday #weather #mountains #convection #moisture #spring #summer #sun #forecasts #nowyouknow

Thunderstorms Explained

What are thunderstorms and how do they happen?

We have now entered into the season of thunderstorms! The late spring and summer months are when you most often see thunderstorms in the Okanagan Valley. Even though they can happen during all hours of the day, they most often occur in the afternoon or early evening hours. .
Across the globe, about 16 million thunderstorms happen every year. Approximately 2000 storms are happening at any given moment worldwide.

For a thunderstorm to happen, a few things have to be in place. In general, the recipe for a thunderstorm calls for three things: moisture, a lifting mechanism to raise air, and then the air needs to rise. A thunderstorm will not happen if just one of these ingredients is missing.

You can often tell if there is rising air around you by looking at the clouds. In this picture (taken on May 12, 2020), I’m pointing at cumulus clouds, or clouds that have vertical development. This “popcorn-looking” type of cloud often depicts unstable air, or rising air.

The need to have all of the right ingredients in place makes forecasting thunderstorms tricky. Meteorologists can often see the potential or the risk of a thunderstorm in a given area. However, because storms may not necessarily be widespread, it is nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly where and when a storm will occur until just a short time before. For example, a storm may roll through parts of East Kelowna, while West Kelowna remains sunny, or vice versa.


This is why you often see a “risk” of a thunderstorm on forecasts, with a certain degree of uncertainty.

#weather #cloudy  #rain #storm #seasons #sun #May2020 #kelowna #okanagan #showers #precipitation #meteorology #weslaweather #wx #statistics #climate #nowyouknow #weatherwednesday #weather #mountains #convection #moisture #spring #kelownanow #tourismkelowna #summer #weathernerd #weathernation #uncertainty 

Rain vs Showers - What is the Difference?

What is the difference between rain and showers? 🌧 ☔️ .

It’s a wet Wednesday in the Kelowna area as a result of a weather system that is directing moisture into our region. So I thought it would be a great day to explain RAIN vs SHOWERS.

Both rain and showers are drops of liquid falling from the sky. The difference between the two is the DURATION. When a meteorologist uses the term ‘showers’, they expect breaks between the precipitation, but ‘rain’ falls for longer periods of time (typically at least an hour or more).

Here in the #Okanagan valley, we generally see showery conditions, whereas on the coastal areas like the Lower Mainland, rain is more prominent and can last for hours at a time. This is all because here in the valley, we live on the leeward side of the Coastal Mountains, and these large geographic landforms often have the ability to break up the precipitation, especially during a westerly influenced flow. You may have heard the term ‘rain shadow’, which describes an area that has relatively less precipitation on the leeward side of a topographic barrier, such as a mountain.

Side note : anyone else dealing with really frizzy hair today ?? 🤪
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#weather #cloudy  #rain #storm #seasons #sunny #May2020 #May #kelowna #okanagan #dry #showers #precipitation #meteorology #weslaweather #wx #statistics #climate #nowyouknow #weatherwednesday #hairfrizz #frizzyhair #weather #rainshadow #mountains .